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3 Questions and Answers to VR Games

indoor playgroundOver the previous couple of years, we have seen a plethora of news posts about the way virtual reality was about to save the timeless arcade. The theory goes that the vr game gear is too expensive for home users, so it creates an chance for operators to pony up the big bucks to buy it and make their money back by charging per game to play it. From the MIT Technology Review.
"While many high-end cans were released annually that can bring virtual-reality experiences to your living space, adoption of the technology remains in its earliest days to get a bunch of reasons--it is still bulky, expensive, and there isn't all that far to do once you've got it on your face. More than two million headsets were shipped worldwide in 2016, according to an estimate from market researcher Canalys, but this figure pales in comparison to the prevalence of, say, video game consoles (earnings of their top one, Sony's PS4, topped six million during the 2016 holiday season alone). Consumer virtual reality will probably catch on as costs come down and headsets improve. In the meantime, however, a variety of companies are betting that customers could possibly be happy to cover a much smaller sum to try out the tech with their buddies at, say, an arcade, theme park, or even bowling alley."
It is tempting to dive into this snare, but from an operator's perspective VR is a terrible deal. Operators are being asked to pay top dollar for tech that is all but guaranteed to plummet in value over the very short term. Other than purchasing a brand new car and driving it a mile, I can not think of a way that you could eliminate money quicker between what you pay and what you will have the ability to get for it down the road.
Another limit for most operators is that while you may be able to provide a room for VR people to roam around in now, as fresh VR tech is unveiled, we are likely to see the point expanded from 100 square feet into the whole world. Instead of viewing just the matches in your headset, you'll see the real world with game play overlayed. Kids can go to the park and relive the knights of the round table or parking garages to take aliens. As the tech allows more real world places to be researched, it is going to make a cramped arcade seem fairly feeble in comparison.
VR is heading for mass market acceptance, but it is demand isn't being pushed by players who want to pay big buck to play video games, but like the BETAMAX that came before it, by people who wish to watch porn in their houses.
Even if an operator can make just a little bit of money to the upcoming few years, once VR achieves critical mass, it is going to crush whatever earnings flow that operators're dreaming of. Do not believe me? Just check out what's happening in China.
A year after 22,000 of these have closed.
This is an incredible failure rate over such a short time period and one which should function as a sharp warning to anyone contemplating investing in the VR games. Maybe Dave and Busters can afford to take losses over the games more than Chinese startup arcades, however I doubt most North American operators will fare much better using the tech in their match rooms and will just end up in debt at the end of the day.
The issue basically boils down to consumers not being prepared to pay a premium for the encounter. Tech In Asia, describes the problem perfectly in their article, on the Chinese VR boom and bust.

"Enterprising shop owners jumped into VR are finding it impossible to charge fees akin to cinemas or bowling alleys to get a VR experience. One VR arcade proprietor told iHeima that he saw eager queues when charging US$1.50 to get a 30-minute session, but everyone disappeared as it rose to US$5. By that sort of revenue it is impossible to cover the rent."
Even if the match was sold out all day, at $1.50 per half hour they are just earning $30 a day.
The actual world data streaming in from China should serve as a canary in the quarter plantations of North America. Operators who invest considerable amounts of money on fancy VR setups will soon find their little VR rooms being replaced by the whole world as a stage. As the setups get cheaper, smaller and more mobile, the virtual arcades will look more expensive, bulky and restricted. I would like to be proven wrong on this one, but I feel that the arcade VR fad is more hype than hope.
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